Drawing conclusions from data

December 21st, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

This analysis of a recent sporadic-E event came across the local ham club e-mail list:

http://www.swotrc.net/121607EsEvent.PDF

I study the ionosphere “professionally” right now…so, of course, this piqued my interest. Although I’m an aeronomer, I’ll be the first to admit that the author probably has more experience with sporadic-E than I do. That said, I don’t completely believe him.

He presents several data sets, both from the MST (meso-,strato-,troposphere) region and the ionosphere. Given a lack of “activity” in the troposphere, he concluded that the sporadic-E was caused by a CME (coronal mass ejection) from the Sun. Why don’t I believe him? He invokes no physics (either through citation or explanation) to tie the CME to the formation of sporadic-E. Furthermore, also note by his own presented data that the effect of the CME wasn’t noted at SOHO and GOES until 0200 UT on the 17th, but the Millstone Hill ionosonde was seeing sporadic-E as early as 0000 UT.

The pressure to conclude something from data is immense. Perhaps the most admirable (and underrated) conclusion one can make from data is: I’ve noticed a correlation between X and Y. I believe that relationship X = F(Y) is responsible. I propose the following experiment to test that relationship…

Single-Op, Two-Radio

November 28th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

Contesting, as I have said before, is an exercise in engineering.  They write the rules.  You design your station and strategy to maximize your score within those rules.  In such an arbitrary or contrived pursuit, it is often difficult to discern whether proposed rule changes are significant or important.  One of the latest targets is SO2R operation.  Let’s break down the reasons why the present categories exist:

  • Single Operator, power levels:  Power changes your strategy.  But, other things created equal, you’ll certainly make more contacts running higher power, regardless of strategy.  Power is a bolt-on advantage.
  • Single Operator, assisted:  Assistance makes use of information or skills (in the antiquated case of loggers) of additional operators who do not actually operate.  Clearly, one operator is not doing all of the operating.
  • Multi-Operator:  Clearly, adding additional transmitters increases your ability to attract QSOs by CQing.

Where does SO2R fit into this?  As expert K5ZD has observed, SO2R is something that you grow into being able to leverage.  This suggests that SO2R is predominantly a skill, at least on CW and Phone and perhaps to a lesser extent on RTTY (although, I will say that I think CW is more natural than RTTY).  Adding SO2R costs less than adding an amplifier.  So, it’s not a matter of haves and have-nots.  My scores sagged the first times I did SO2R—clearly not a bolt-on advantage here.

W4PA made an interesting observation about the M/S category recently:  Why is no one clamoring for MS1R, MS2R, MS3R, etc, categories?  Or in M/M for that matter?  Because these  guys are more interested in winning by pushing the state-of-the-art than by creating a new category for themselves.

Am I opposed to an SO2R category?  Not specifically.  If such a distinction were to be made, it should be included in a limited/unlimited distinction like the T/S category in WPX.  Fix all of the category “problems” in one motion.  But, until such a limited category is created, leave SO alone!

Contesting, Contesters, and Contests

November 26th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

I cruised by eHam for the first time in a long time the other day.  As, I’ve mentioned here before, I left due to the low SNR and because the forums weren’t exactly, um, inspirational.  There was one of the perennial Contest-Anticontest threads raging in the Contesting forum.  The originator sarcastically “thanked” contesters for “trashing” the bands during the CQ WW CW contest last weekend.  I skimmed through the bashing from both sides until I got to a poster who said, “Thank you, contesters, for giving me some contacts.”

You’re quite welcome!  This guy knows what’s up.  He’s new to HF and had a terrible time making contacts outside of contests.  A lot of us started out in his shoes.  Honestly, when I first got on HF at 14, I didn’t feel like I had anything to say to older people on the radio—that’s why I left repeaterland.  Now that I’ve done some stuff, that’s different…but, I still like contesting.  Over the past five years, I’ve found friends that I’ve operated, built antennas, strategized, or just plain shook hands with.  Some of the most interesting people I know are contesters.  Tell me that ’59’ contacts are impersonal!

This is a great hobby.  Life is too short to bash any of your fellow hams!

Implications of talk without knowledge

October 8th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

Since I quit reading eHam due to the low SNR (signal-to-noise ratio), I’ve started reading news blog salon.com.  Of course, whenever you enter a politically-charged environ such as Salon, you’re bound to encounter the same SNR problems as those elsewhere on the web.

In her piece Life Will Kill You, Katharine Mieszkowski writes

 A cellphone is a microwave, and basically the reason your ear gets hot is that you’re warming it with a microwave.

Wrong!  Your ear also gets hot because the phone is dissipating heat when it’s transmitting and because you’re trapping heat radiated by your body.  My ear gets hot when I’m talking on a landline phone, too.  Perhaps that should suggest something…

Do I believe that cell phone usage is 100% safe?  No.  But, I am concerned by the fact that people, especially in politics and the media, who have a tenuous grasp of science, are shaping policy opinions based on their junk science.

A project that my advisor and I are working on in South America got picked-up by the Weather Channel for a series about “extreme weather.”  He showed me the broadcast recording (video file) of the story.  The first thing I noticed when he played it was that the title at the bottom of the screen said, “Ionispheric Storms.”  What?  Yes, they spelled ionospheric wrong.  “Well, that’s just a typo, ” you say.  No, it is a failure of a system that is more interested in getting a story out than reporting something interesting or useful.

I’ve seen this sort of thing over and over on the War and Weapons Channel, the Discovery Channel, and others.  I really can’t stand to watch TV shows about things that I’ve worked on these days because many of them are simply inaccurate.  Why should I have reason to believe that the news or anything else is more accurate?

In a line of thinking I owe to statistician and information design expert Edward Tufte, real problems are messy and multivariate, rich and full of information and relationships.  The more we learn about science, we should endeavor to make what we have learned more real, not more dilute.  Everyone must know and learn more to do this.  But, we will be rewarded for it.

Fall CW Sprint prelim

September 26th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

N6TR has posted the draft Sprint results. Although I’m disappointed with my overall effort and score, I’m pleased that I missed the golden log by one busted QSO. I may not QSY fast, yet; but, at least I’m pretty accurate. The guys who do this contest well still amaze me.

When I put the teams together, KJ9C always says, “There’s a big party in Indy this weekend; I don’t know if I’ll be in any shape to contest.” Then, he swoops in and stomps me.  This is the second year he’s done that. K4LT always has a beer before a contest to keep the jitters down. Maybe there’s something to that. I don’t think it tastes good enough even if my scores did go up…

QSLing

September 14th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

I started to work on my backlog of bureau (“buro”) QSLs last night.  Like many contesters, I find QSLing to be an enormous chore, especially via the bureaus.  But, as I am fond of saying, contesting is a marketing game; a nice QSL may be as important to operator you contacted as the QSO was to your score.

One of the fascinating things about the bureau cards is that they come in chunks by country.  I’ve received a lot of cards for my CE/K8GU operation in August 2006.  It seems as though Chile was highly sought-after in Europe, especially on CW.  I must have been pretty loud up there, too, with the antenna at the edge of the cliff.

Working through the QSLs did bring back memories of learning to work a pile-up and log on paper.  You see, I didn’t have a computer suitable for logging along on the trip.  So, I had to log on paper.  I entered the entire log into my computer on the flight home.  (At Sarah’s prodding, I had read Harry Potter on the way down.)  It’s a good thing I entered the entire log because I left the log in the back of the seat pocket in front of me.

Anyhow, I’m getting the itch to be DX again…

Bureaucracy and Outsourcing—is it time for a new paradigm?

September 12th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

I was reading E. Marla Felcher’s essay on Slate about making toys safer.  She mentions a staggering statistic on defective toys: some 76% of recalls in the past twenty years have been attributed to “design flaws.”  Perhaps toy designers should read Donald A. Norman’s The Psychology of Everyday Things.  But, the part of the essay that got my attention was her discussion of difficulty of enforcement.  This, essentially, is the difficulty with anything that is organized as a bureaucracy.

We know from high school government class that a bureaucracy is the “most efficient means to manage a large group of people.”  However, the one thing that’s not often mentioned is the characteristic of bureaucracies that gives them such a bad reputation: it’s hard to get to the bottom of things.  Multi-national corporations and militaries are built on the same bureaucratic structures.  These structures are notoriously difficult to penetrate and affect from outside—is an action criminal or just following orders?

With a bureaucracy, we have “efficiency,” but at what cost?  Perhaps outsourcing woes are a sign of things to come.  Is it time for a new paradigm?

12 dB

September 7th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

The Sprint, as I have written before, is a CW operator’s contest. Last night, the usual Thursday night gang, plus some, gathered for another happy half-hour of Sprint practice. But, the rules were different: high-power (1.5 kW) was permitted and no duplicate contacts (per band) were allowed. I felt puny, especially on 40 and 80 after the masses left 20 meters. Looking at 3830 this morning, I notice that almost everybody ran high power. 12 dB makes a difference…(not to mention that I have about the smallest antennas of anyone who participates.)

More on electronic music

September 6th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

I was pondering my roots in electronic music last night after posting the Vocal Trance note.  At first, I was tempted to say that the first electronic composition that mesmerized me was Enigma’s Sadeness, which I discovered quite by accident in 2001.  But, upon further thought, I was mistaken.  It was the Ray Lynch album Deep Breakfast.  I have no idea where the tape came from, probably something that Mom or Dad heard on WKSU (the local NPR affiliate).  I listened to the tape frequently as a kid (sometime around 1989, I’d guess), both in the car and the stereo at home; but, promptly lost interest.  (Aside: I refused interest in all music for a period of a few years before discovering an interest in classic rock.)

I hadn’t thought of Ray Lynch in years.  I couldn’t even remember his last name, although I do recall the genre classification from the cassette as “New Age.”  I punched “Ray New Age” into iTunes and he popped right up.   After listening to the first few bars of the preview clip for Celestial Soda Pop, I was able to hum the entire song to myself.  The most remarkable things, though, were the dozen or so reviews repeating a story just like mine.  They’d listened to Ray Lynch as a kid after their parents discovered his music in a gift shop or record store.  According to his web site, Ray Lynch has never toured or performed on TV.  Yet, he’s an extremely successful musician.  The music sells itself.  That’s a thought to consider all by itself…

Vocal trance

September 5th, 2007 by k8gu No comments »

I am reminded as I sit relaxing through two hours of Andy Gregory‘s tributes to Leama and Moor that vocal trance is essentially perfect music.  The beat carries the energy.  The melody carries the mood.  It’s collage in sound.  Everything is perfectly orchestrated.  It’s a systems engineering approach to music.  Beautiful.